Full Conference Programme – pdf. file can be downloaded here

Programme at a glanceplease click here to download in pdf

A hard copy of the Conference Handbook will be available in the registration package as well as a USB stick with the abstract book, programme, town hall listing and Exchanges 70


Scientific Programme


Monday (QNLM): Ocean’s Role in the Climate System


10:00 - Opening Ceremony (Chair Lixin Wu)




11:00 - Thomas Stocker: Anthropogenic Climate Change: Time to Focus on the Ocean


11:45 - Group Photo


14:00 - Plenary 1 (Chair Fangli Qiao)


14:00 - Monika Rhein: The ocean’s role in the energy cycle


14:20 - Laurent Bopp: The ocean carbon sink, today and tomorrow: what we know, what we don’t know


14:40 - Ray Schmitt: The Global Water Cycle


15:00 - Cheng, Lijing: Historical ocean heat content estimation and the implication for assessing Earth's energy budget


15:20 – Questions and discussion


15:30 – Coffee/tea break


16:00 - Parallel sessions


1.1 Energy (Chairs:  Karina von Schuckman, Mathew Palmer, Kevin Trenberth)




Insights into Earth’s energy imbalance from multiple sources

Trenberth, Kevin


A new concept for space-time integration of surface turbulent heat fluxes and analysis of long-term change in basin-scale surface flux

Gulev, Sergey


Sea level accelerations, the recent surface warming slowdown and the planet's energy balance

Ponte, Rui


An idealized 50 years decomposition of the impact changing surface conditions have on ocean subsurface temperature trends

Lago, Veronique


Global ocean vertical heat flux and its bidecadal change

Liang, Xinfeng


Attribution of observed Southern Ocean warming and freshening using a new Super Ensemble

Swart, Neil


1.2 Carbon (Chairs: Pedro Monteiro, Curtis Deutsch)






Investigating the mechanisms behind the reinvigoration of the Southern ocean carbon sink



Séférian, Roland






Temporal and Spatial Scale-Sensitivities of Air-Sea CO2 Fluxes in the Southern Ocean



Monteiro, Pedro






Current and Future Ocean Carbon Uptake - Carbon Hot Spot: A new field program to understand the role of eddies in carbon sequestration within the Kuroshio Extension region



Bishop, Stuart






Updated global trends in surface ocean pCO2: decadal to multidecadal timescales



Fay, Amanda






Sources of uncertainties in 21st century projections of potential ocean ecosystem stressors



Rodgers, Keith





Estimation of anthropogenic carbon in global ocean using transit time distribution and evaluation of its uncertainties based on ocean model output



He, Yanchun



1.3 Water (Chairs: Paul Durack, Sonia Seneviratne, Olga Zolina)





Connections between oceans and continents via the atmospheric water cycle



Dirmeyer, Paul




Dry gets drier, wet gets wetter? Why ocean responses do not translate into land climate behaviour



Greve, Peter




Current changes in precipitation and its extremes across wet and dry regions



Liu, Chunlei




North Atlantic Salinity as a Predictor of Extreme Precipitation Events in the US Midwest



Li, Laifang




Changes in European extreme precipitation over the last decades



Zolina, Olga




Arctic Freshwater Export: Status, Mechanisms, and Prospects



Haine, Thomas


17:45 – Buses leave for Hyatt


19:00 – Icebreaker reception (Hyatt)


Tuesday (Hyatt): Climate Variability and Predictability,  Chair: Noel Baker


09:00 - Plenary 2:


09:00 - Harry Hendon: Progress in Sub-Seasonal and Seasonal Prediction


09:20 - Rowan Sutton: Decadal Climate Variability and Predictability


09:40 - Kim Cobb: Paleo-constraints on recent trends in tropical Pacific climate


10:00 - Iuliia Polkova: Predictive skill for regional interannual steric sea level and mechanisms for predictability


10:20 – Questions and discussion


10:30 – Coffee/tea  break


11:00 - Poster Session 


14:00 - Parallel sessions


2.1 Intraseasonal to Interannual (Chairs:  Aida Diongue, Rodney G. Martinez, Michael Mcphaden)






The Role of Reversed Equatorial Zonal Transport in Terminating an ENSO Event



Chen, Han-Ching






Tropical Rainfall, Rossby Waves and Regional Winter Climate Predictions



Knight, Jeff






Characterization of soil moisture variability over South America: linkages to remote sources of variability



Spennemann, Pablo






The MISVA project: From a better understanding of the intraseasonal and synoptic variability toward forecast



Janicot, Serge







Tropical atmospheric forcing of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation



Yu, Bin






Intraseasonal SST and Precipitation Variability of the Indian Summer Monsoon: Impact of Ocean Mixed Layer Depth



Li, Yuanlong






Understanding and Predicting Subseasonal Extreme Events: Relationship between Warm Airmass Transport into the Upper Polar Atmosphere and Cold Air Outbreaks in Winter



Yu, Yueyue






ENSO Diversity: Past, Present, and Future. Causes and Consequences of the 2015-16 El Niño



McPhaden, Michael




2.2 Decadal (Chairs:  Paco Doblas Reyes, Yochanan Kushnir)





The Pacific decadal oscillation, revisited



Newman, Matthew





A novel use of climate predictions to identify unprecedented climate extremes



Thompson, Vikki




Impact of observed North Atlantic multidecadal variations to European summer climate: A linear baroclinic response to surface heating



Ghosh, Rohit




The role of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability on extreme climate conditions over North America and Europe



Ruprich-Robert, Yohan




Southern Ocean deep convection in global climate models: a driver for variability of subpolar gyres and Drake Passage transport on decadal timescales



Behrens, Erik




Impacts of Ocean Model Parameterizations on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) Variability in the Community Earth



Danabasoglu, Gokhan


2.3 Centennial to Millennial (Chairs: Pascale Braconnot, Axel Timmermann, Kim Cobb)






Storm Tracks during the Deglaciation



Valdes, Paul






Dependence of the AMOC stability on the background climate



Hu, Aixue






Understanding the bipolar seesaw through ocean energetics



Oliver, Kevin






Simulated response of the mid-Holocene Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in ECHAM6-FESOM/MPIOM



Shi, Xiaoxu






The global monsoon response to volcanic eruptions in the CMIP5 past1000 simulations



Man, Wenmin






Timescales of AMOC collapse



Jackson, Laura



15:30 – Coffee/ tea break


16:00 – Poster session


17:00 - Keynote:  Magdalena Balmaseda: Seamless Prediction and the interactions of time scales, earth system components and institutions


18:00 –19:00 -  Town halls 1-3

1: Introduction to YMC and WPOS

2: Ocean observing Satellites - future plans

3: PAGES Townhall Meeting


19:30 – 20:30 - Town halls 4-6

4: Indo-Pacific teleconnection

5: WCRP Future 6: Glacier Melt



Wednesday (Hyatt): Understanding Ocean and Climate Processes, Chair: Jonathan Durgadoo


09:00 - Plenary 3:


09:00 - Rym Msadek: Role of ocean dynamics in climate variability on interannual to multidecadal time scales


09:20 - Raffaele Ferrari: Mixing and Stirring


09:40 - Weidong Yu: Upwelling and Frontal Zones - Example of Complexity in the Monsoonal Indian Ocean


10:00 - Paulo Calil: Frontal Instabilities in the South Atlantic Subtropical Front and their Impact on Phytoplankton Blooms


10:20 – Questions and discussion


10:30 – Coffee/tea break


11:00 -  Poster Session


14:00 - Parallel Sessions



3.1 Mixing and Stirring:  (Chairs: Marina Levy, Baylor Fox Kemper, Sonya Legg)





Influence of mesoscale and submesoscale dynamics on the seasonal cycle of the ocean mixed layer depth



Treguier, Anne Marie





Variability of submesoscale dynamics in the North Atlantic ocean. 



Le Sommer, Julien





Geographical distribution and anisotropy of the oceanic inverse kinetic energy cascade



Liu, Zhi Liang




Wave turbulence interaction induced vertical mixing and its effects in ocean and climate models



Qiao, Fangli




Ocean-atmosphere interactions on the submesoscale field of the Southern Ocean and its associated impacts on the mixed layer variability



du Plessis, Marcel




Internal wave driven mixing: An energetically consistent replacement for the Osborn relationship in ocean mixing parameterizations



Hallberg, Robert



3.2 Ocean and Climate Dynamics: (Chairs: Shoshiro Minobe, Matthew England)






Ocean-atmosphere coupling in changing climate: SST pattern dynamics



Xie, Shang-Ping






The Meridional Mode in an Idealized Aquaplanet Model: Dependence on the Mean State



Zhang, Honghai






Nonlinearities in the evolutional distinctions between El Niño and La Niña flavors



Karumuri, Ashok






Climate Variability and Predictability Over the Indo-Pacific Ocean: Indonesian Throughflow variations in the eastern Indonesian seas during the onsets of the 2014 and 2015 El Niño



Yuan, Dongliang






Ocean and cryosphere interactions: Tropical Pacific Climate Response to Projected Arctic Sea Ice Loss



Wang, Kun






Tropical Atlantic Variability and Predictability - PREFACE project



Keenlyside, Noel






Coordinated ocean-ice reference experiments (core-ii): an assessment of antarctic circumpolar current and southern ocean meridional overturning circulation during 1958-2007



Farneti, Riccardo






On Extratropical Frontal- and Meso-scale Air-Sea Interaction



Shoshiro Minobe






How is the atmospheric boundary layer responding to the dynamic new Arctic Ocean?



Ganeshan, Manisha




3.3 Upwelling and Frontal Zones:(Chairs: Enrique Curchitser, Mauricio Mata)



Frontal structure and transport in southern Drake Passage from ocean gliders

Ruan, Xiaozhou


Interannual Variability of Eastern Indian Ocean Upwelling: Local versus Remote Forcing

Chen, Gengxin


Eastern boundary Upwelling systems (EBUS): interannual variability in the eastern south Pacific and biological response

Escribano, Ruben


Effects of ocean surface gravity waves: on turbulence, climate, and frontogenesis.

Fox Kemper, Baylor


Eastern boundary upwelling systems (EBUS): Intraseasonal to interannual variability of the Angola Current inferred from moored and shipboard measurements

Kopte, Robert


Assessing different hypotheses about the origin of Benguela upwelling warm bias

Krebs, Martin



15:30 – Coffee/tea break


16:00 - Poster Session


17:00 - Keynote:  Jennifer MacKinnon: The elephant and the mouse: multiple scales of ocean dynamic


18:00 – 19:00 – Town halls 7-8

7: HighResMIP 8: CLIVAR Science Plan


19:30 – 20:30 – Town halls 9-10 9: FutureEarth 10: Ocean and Climate Modeling


Thursday (Hyatt): The Ocean in a Warmer World, Chair: Sarah Kang


09:00 Plenary 4:


09:00 - Mike Alexander: Modes of sea surface temperature variability in a warmer world


09:20 - Fan Wang: Multi-scale and long-term variability of the western boundary currents in the warming up oceans


09:40 - Seung-Ki Min: Human-caused Indo-Pacific warm pool expansion


10:00 - Anny Cazenave: Present-day sea level changes at global and regional scales


10:20 – Questions and discussion


10:30 – Coffee/tea break


11:00 - Poster Session


14:00 - Parallel sessions



4.1 Climate Modes: (Chairs: Krishna AchutaRao, Eric Guilyardi)






Reduced ENSO Variability at the LGM Revealed by an Isotope-enabled Earth System Model



Zhu, Jiang






Understanding extreme El Niño: the curious case of the 2015/16 event



Santoso, Agus






Tropical Atlantic decadal variability and how it is affected by external forcing



Milinski, Sebastian






An Ensemble Approach to Understanding ENSO Diversity and Climate Change



Stevenson, Samantha






Two dominant boreal summer tropical-extratropical teleconnection modes in the Northern Hemisphere in a Warmer World



Lee, June-Yi






What controls the divergent projection of ENSO amplitude change under global warming?



Li, Tim




4.2 Sea Level: (Chairs: Aimee Slangen, Benoit Meyssignac)





Dominant modes of natural decadal sea-level variability in the indian ocean



Lengaigne, Matthieu




Upper-ocean thermal expansion and contribution to sea level change since 1970: from global mean rise to regional patterns



Domingues, Catia Motta




Pacific Sea Level Rise Patterns and Global Surface Temperature Variability



Yin, Jianjun




Sea level variability around Japan during the 20th century simulated by a regional ocean model



Sasaki, Yoshinori




Annual sea level changes on the north american northeast coast: influence of local winds and barotropic motions



Piecuch, Christopher




Future projection of ocean wave climate change: a community approach to global and regional wave downscaling



Mori, Nobuhito


4.3 Boundary Current Systems: (Chairs: Sabrina Speich, Toshio Suga)






Seasonal to interannual variability of the meridional heat fluxes in the South Atlantic



Sato, Olga






Response of biological production to the strengthening of the upwelling-favorable Trade Winds in the Northern Humboldt Current System: A Modeling Study



Mogollón Aburto, Rodrigo






Can the OFES and CESM models reproduce long Rossby waves?



Polito, Paulo Simionatto






Downscale the future changes of the Indonesian Throughflow



Feng, Ming





Semi-annually alternating exchange of intermediate waters east of the Philippines



Lina Song






The 2014 warm anomalies observed in the eastern boundary current system off southern California



Nam, SungHyun



15:30 – Coffee/tea break


16:00 - Poster Session and Town halls 11 11: Ocean Observing


17:00 - Keynote: Wenju Cai: ENSO and greenhouse warming


19:00 - Banquet



Friday (Hyatt), Chair: Dunxin Hu


09:00 - Plenary 5: Climate Information and Sustainable Development (Chair: Martin Visbeck)


09:00 - Fei Chai: Coastal and Marine Ecosystems in a Changing World


09:20 - Arame Tall: Crafting appropriate institutional frameworks for climate services: the experience of the National frameworks for climate services in Africa

09:40 - Panel Discussion:


Panelists: Guy Brasseur, Fei Chai, Arame Tall, Thorsten Kiefer


10:30 – Coffee/ tea break


11:00 - Plenary 6: Future of Climate and Ocean Science (Chair: Annalisa Bracco)


11:00 - Matt Collins:  The Role of Climate Dynamics in Future Climate Change


11:20 - Nicolas Gruber: Climate, carbon and ocean biogeochemistry at a time of change: Recent insights, emerging trends, and future outlook


11:40 - Guy Brasseur: Understanding the multi-scale dynamics of the climate system: Challenges for WCRP in the Future


12:00 - Panel Discussion:


Panelists: In-Sik Kang, Lynne Talley, Lixin Wu, Matt Collins, Nicolas Gruber, Guy Brasseur


12:30 - Reflections on the week - Detlef Stammer

Best Poster Awards

Closing remarks - Guy Brasseur

13:30 -  Conference ends

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